The Running Realtor: Home Sales Rise in New Haven County

A blend of ramblings about Real Estate & Running around New Haven County and the Connecticut Shoreline

Home Sales Rise in New Haven County

This morning our local newspaper, The New Haven Register, had a story entitled Home sales in state rise 4.6% over 2006.   Being in the real estate business my eye catches stories of this nature.

The media always seems to waffle with their message to the general public.  How long have we heard the gloom and doom of The Real Estate Bubble?  The message implied you should get out the parachute and jump before the prices crash or sit on the sidelines waiting to scoop up a bargain.

When the big price drop failed to materialize they decided to go after the volume.  Claims of vast numbers of properties  lingering unsold awaiting the price collapse.  Today the report says January sales volume is up 11% in New Haven County and the median price dipped down 1.7%.    What do you believe?

Whenever I read stories with statistics I wonder if they are accurate.  Well.. of course they are, you can bend and twist numbers every which way to prove a point.  Today I decided to run my own numbers to double check the facts in the paper.

Since The Cummings Team of William Raveis Real Estate is based on the Connecticut Shoreline I decided to hone in on New Haven County and see if I could duplicate the findings in the article.  The first fact cited the number of homes sold in January 2007 up 11% from 2006.  Hmmm... Big Jump... my sales are not up that high!

My first search of MLS data looked at single family residential sales, 412 Sold in Jan. 2007 vs. 410 in Jan. 2006.  Nowhere near 11% and the median price went from $262,000 in '06 up to $266,250 this year. That is up slightly not the downturn in price the newspaper suggested.

Since my finding differed so much I assumed they must have combined Single Family Home and Condominium sales.  Running those numbers the median price fell into the 230k ballpark but volume is still far from the 11% gain.  My numbers showed 584 sales in January 2006 and 590 in 2007.... Hmmm... Up 1.1%  Maybe they missed the decimal point.

 

Comment balloon 7 commentsNo Longer Active • March 14 2007 03:56PM

Comments

Statistics can be so fun...and also so misleading.  It just depends on who's manipulating the numbers.  I've also found that sometimes the source of the statistics...such as local board numbers can also be off. That's why it's important to deal with individuals who take the time to do their homework.  Thanks for some good insights...and statistics!
Posted by Lola Audu, Audu Real Estate~Grand Rapids, MI ~Welcome Home! (Lola Audu~Audu Real Estate~Grand Rapids, MI Real Estate) about 11 years ago
Dan, when it comes to Real Estate I take what the Media has to say with a big grain of salt.
Posted by George Souto, Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert (George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages) about 11 years ago

Lola... So true about everyone's numbers being off, I like to take my own look just to combat flawed info fed to the public.

George... You and I may realize the numbers are skewed but the public tends to be swayed.  BTW... You still have a cartoon character there by the name of Dick Tracy or Richie Rich....?

Posted by No Longer Active (Real Estate) about 11 years ago
Dan I am not sure what you mean by I "still have a cartoon character there by the name of Dick Tracy or Richie Rich....?"
Posted by George Souto, Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert (George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages) about 11 years ago
George.... He must be long retired then.... Way back when we purchased our first home our mortgage was thru McCue and I thought the loan officer went on to become a big-wig within the company. Still remember his name since it was a combination of those cartoon characters..
Posted by No Longer Active (Real Estate) about 11 years ago

Dan, he must have because I did not get the clue.  What was his name?

By the way a great choice in Mortgage Companies for your first mortgage, and even though you have probably had other mortgages since then, maybe we can help you with the next one :) 

Posted by George Souto, Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert (George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages) about 11 years ago
George,  Not that important.... Never really knew the guy after the application was done about 25 years ago.  If my clues were not clear he must be long gone....  As I recall it was Rich Tracey...
Posted by No Longer Active (Real Estate) about 11 years ago

This blog does not allow anonymous comments