Dan Cummings - The Running Realtor: March 2007

As we approach the prime spring market many people will undoubtedly consider selling their home without using a real estate agent.  Most underestimate the task and simply think they can plant a sign, place an ad and pocket the commission themselves.

The reality is most FSBO's fail and eventually list the property.  The reason their home does not sell is fairly easy to spot for a professional. 

Earlier today I mailed out a letter to many of the homeowners along my 5-Mile running route.  The neighborhood is approaching 30 years old with many Ranch, Raised Ranch and Split Level homes.  A realistic statement would be to say it's a 350-400k area.

Strangely enough my first internet search gave me a perfect EXAMPLE to discuss. This property sits in the middle of my running route and the asking price of $550,000 is clearly well above my estimate of the neighborhood.  The CLASSIC FSBO mistake number one is OVERPRICING. They are just asking for failure and in most cases the home will linger on the market unsold.

My next step was to log onto the MLS and verify my estimate of the area but I got sidetracked with another thought and checked the ZESTIMATE^TM .   Zillow did confirm my 350-400 range but had my example home priced higher so it may be a little over built.

Moving on to the MLS... I find what I refer to as Mistake #2 when talking to FSBO's.   After they finally realize things are not going well they LIST THEIR HOME on the MLS with a minimal service agency, this one is based in Georgia. For showing instructions call the owner.  Now the FSBO has all the work and may wind up paying a commission anyway.

My advice to people going the FOR SALE BY OWNER route is do a little research.  Go to some open houses in your town hosted by other FSBO's.  Talk about what they have learned, watch their progress.

Strange the things you remember as the years pass. We visited Ireland almost a decade ago and I still recall the vivid colors, the lack of people, the food and accommodations.

Green was certainly given a new meaning as we toured the countryside. Every color seemed exaggerated from the lush fields right down to the deep blue sea.  Looking back at the old photos they don't seem to capture the scenes as colorfully.

The over thing that stands out was the cleanliness and lack of clutter. We rarely saw locals on the streets or in their yards.  Since we are in the Real Estate Business paying attention to curb appeal is second nature. All of the homes seemed to have the quiet feel of a ghost town, as if the entire island was staged.

 The food and four star accommodations are also etched into memory.  Since I have a bit of potato farming blood in my ancestry I tend to have a hefty appetite.   Even a meat and potatoes guy like me found the variety lacking.  I consumed more lamb on that trip than I have in the decade since.

By day three or four I would have paid anything for a good old American hamburger and fries at lunch and a thick juicy steak for dinner. I don't remember if Corned Beef & Cabbage was on the menu but they always had plenty of Irish Stew.

The hotels were clean and comfortable but not really comparable to say the Ritz in Naples or hanging out at the one near Laguna Beach.

I never did look at real estate prices, I usually like to compare things to my home.

HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY !

I say if we cannot banish the bastards develop a way to fight back!  Every day we all have to deal with jerks that waste our time sending commercial spam or their latest half ass scam.  Normally I just hit delete and move on but since this was in my Email and also my ActiveRain Message section I wondered if there was an easy way to fight back.

Since I am no techno-genius I have no clue how much trouble the Spam'er goes through to accomplish their goal.  Did they pick my name individually, select send me an email, paste in the message and type "Tomato"....? 

Certainly seems like allot of trouble.  I assume spam control is like gun control, law abiding citizens have to put up with the bureaucracy but criminals find a way around the rules. 

In any event thought I would throw my idea out there.... Is it possible to have a spam complaint button where the offenders I.P. address would be flagged and after a number of verifiable complaints they get hammered every minute or two with a copy of their own junk mail. 

Yes... I realize this may be impossibe with the ability to mask IP's and create dummy email addresses.

How about a program that automatically reads the phone number in the message and dials it every minute reading them their junk mail..  

Just a few thoughts in case some programmer wants a challenge.

This morning our local newspaper, The New Haven Register, had a story entitled Home sales in state rise 4.6% over 2006.   Being in the real estate business my eye catches stories of this nature.

The media always seems to waffle with their message to the general public.  How long have we heard the gloom and doom of The Real Estate Bubble?  The message implied you should get out the parachute and jump before the prices crash or sit on the sidelines waiting to scoop up a bargain.

When the big price drop failed to materialize they decided to go after the volume.  Claims of vast numbers of properties  lingering unsold awaiting the price collapse.  Today the report says January sales volume is up 11% in New Haven County and the median price dipped down 1.7%.    What do you believe?

Whenever I read stories with statistics I wonder if they are accurate.  Well.. of course they are, you can bend and twist numbers every which way to prove a point.  Today I decided to run my own numbers to double check the facts in the paper.

Since The Cummings Team of William Raveis Real Estate is based on the Connecticut Shoreline I decided to hone in on New Haven County and see if I could duplicate the findings in the article.  The first fact cited the number of homes sold in January 2007 up 11% from 2006.  Hmmm... Big Jump... my sales are not up that high!

My first search of MLS data looked at single family residential sales, 412 Sold in Jan. 2007 vs. 410 in Jan. 2006.  Nowhere near 11% and the median price went from $262,000 in '06 up to $266,250 this year. That is up slightly not the downturn in price the newspaper suggested.

Since my finding differed so much I assumed they must have combined Single Family Home and Condominium sales.  Running those numbers the median price fell into the 230k ballpark but volume is still far from the 11% gain.  My numbers showed 584 sales in January 2006 and 590 in 2007.... Hmmm... Up 1.1%  Maybe they missed the decimal point.

Each year as the Saint Patrick's Day Parade comes and goes I think to myself I should swing into the city and watch the parade, time slips by and the years turn into decades.  My son called Saturday afternoon to see if I wanted to tag along but I wasn't quite sure of my schedule so I said I might meet them there - yesterday I made the trip.  

Brian told me the intersection where he and his fiancé would be positioned so I thought it would be fairly easy to meet up with them.  I parked a few blocks away, intentionally picking the top level of a parking garage so I could get some stock photos for future blogs.

As I approached the parade it was decision time, the logical planner in me thought cutting north one block and east for another would be the quickest and least congested route.  My party side went for the crowd to soak up some festive ambiance. 

The smell of beer and cigarettes was thick as was the crowd, maybe 10 feet wide with a few watching the parade and others attempting to travel in both directions.  The push was slow. My next half hour was spent flowing north squeezed into a sea of college girls & Gen-X'ers.  Guess with people my age the logical side of the brain usually wins so they avoid the crowd.

About mid-block fists started flying and an opening suddenly emerged, lucky me...eye to eye with the big guy!  His wife or girlfriend had hold of his shirt as he thrashed around trying to break loose, I started pounding his upper arm with an open hand yelling mellow out dude...he turned, grabbed his woman and started screaming in her face. For a few seconds I was paralyzed in thought, grabbing this guy now would surely escalate the situation. Fortunately he settled down as the push and screams from behind me started moving the crowd forward again.  Reflecting back it dawned on my how ill prepared I was for action, I was wearing glasses!  They could have broke...

Funny how times have changed, when I reached the mellow area I notice I was surrounded by what once may have been considered "Outlaw Bikers".  All hanging in harmony - Hells Angels, James Gang, Hole in the Wall, Brothers of The Rock, the general population and Dan The Running Man.

After the isolated outburst I witnessed upon arriving the afternoon was quite civilized. Never did meet up with my son though, his cell went right into voice mail and I was stepping into the parking garage after the parade when he returned my call. Just as well, gave me a chance to watch as a silent observer and enabled me to get several photos I may have missed.

The other day I was in New Haven to watch the Guilford vs Madison Girls Hockey playoff and after the game I had a little free time.   It must be 20 years since I ventured to the Top of East Rock so with my camera in hand I set out on my adventure.

Guess my memory has faded, thought I'd just drive up to the top and take a few pictures.  Unfortunately there was a gate so I had to set off on foot.

My intension was to get some nice city skyline photos but it was late afternoon and my view looking west was into the sun. I did get a few decent shots.  Here is a close up view of the Soldiers and Sailors Monument and a distant view of Sleeping Giant

Sleeping Giant also offers some decent views.  Once the weather turns a bit warmer I will try a run up to the tower, round trip is about 5k.

Getting ready to leave for a little ski trip and just checked in to see if the results were posted from this morning's run.  My running buddy, far more experienced than me, is a fair weather runner - quits in November and restarts in April but he remains quicker than me. 

Once before a race he gave me his tip, focus in on a nice ass and run.  Told him I'm always back with the retirees, guess I am improving!  Managed to finish with the 27 year olds...

ps.... He was joking when he said it and today was purely coincidental...   ;-))

Welcome to March Madness......

We are having a bit of weather in my piece of the world today.  Had a clue that there may be trouble in paradise as I was driving home for lunch and noticed several roads with barricades.   My river frontage is looking a little murky and creeping closer as we speak.

 At least there is a positive twist. Received an email from a friend this morning, we're heading to Vermont this weekend for a ski day and there was a fresh foot by 9:00am. 

Pardon the pun but ... I gotta RUN.

Just stopped in to collect 200 points before I go.